I started my journey at Staffordshire University studying a foundation degree in Visitor Attraction and Resort Management, a unique, bespoke course with Alton Towers Resort. I learnt a lot during my time studying at Staffordshire University, some standout modules for me were business development and hotel and hospitality. I was able to transfer knowledge learnt in the classroom to my placements at Alton Towers. While studying, and since I’ve graduated, I‘ve worked in a wide range of departments such as the Resort Box Office, Sea Life and Guest Excellence as well as working on large events such as Scarefest and Santa Sleepover. I loved working with customers and using my customer service skills to make sure guests had a magical visit at the Resort.
Once I completed my Foundation degree, I then decided to gain the full degree and studied for another year to gain a BA in Events Management. This was a step up and again a huge experience, with stand out memories such as when I got to plan and host my own virtual event to a live audience. We hosted the Staffordshire University Film Night, which streamed over Facebook and had a lot of viewers while raising money for our chosen charity Macmillan Cancer Support. Once I completed my full degree I started to apply for jobs. It has always been a dream to become a member of cabin crew. I used my academic and customer service skills from university and my placements to gain a place at the Ryanair training course. This was an intense training course which included both exams and practical training. After completing the training and becoming qualified to fly, I have now been to a wide range of destinations in Europe, and I really can’t wait to see where my future takes off now. This has been my dream for a long time, I am hugely proud to be flying with Ryanair, as well as being hugely grateful for the opportunities and experiences I have gained while working for Merlin Entertainments as well as studying with Staffordshire University.
The Business Innovation and Entrepreneurship course is not only about being an entrepreneur or setting up your own business but it is actually understanding how innovation and entrepreneurship should really be at the heart of any business decision. Successful businesses today are the ones who have been really innovative, they have fresh thinking with an entrepreneurial mindset. In today’s dynamic business setting, both small and large companies harness entrepreneurial streaks.
Entrepreneurship and innovation play a very important role within businesses of all shapes and sizes. Employees are expected to think outside the box which can only happen if employees can think innovatively. Today’s world is rather dynamic with the speed of innovation becoming faster, a shorter product life cycle, ever-changing consumer taste, technological advancement, competitor threat, changing government and legal landscape and other external factors not in the control of businesses.
In the face of the current pandemic, it becomes ever so important
to be aware of the surrounding economic conditions and the political climate.
To explore the ethical and unethical anomalies in the contemporary global
political and global economic systems. Such systems can provide both challenges
Sustainability has become a buzz word today. It is not only about
shareholders and profitability anymore. Consumers, suppliers, governments and
many other stakeholders now question the practices of businesses. Companies are
expected to run their businesses with a social responsibility. The triple
bottom line (Elkington 2018); which translates to people, profit and planet,
need to be considered.
Creative Destruction (Schumpeter, 1942) has taken a different
meaning altogether in todays business environment. We are in the midst of the
fourth industrial revolution and ‘disruption’ is at the heart of it. Companies
go through continuous organisational change and hence, have to assess how to
leverage innovative business models to remain competitive.
Of course, to innovate or have an entrepreneurial streak and to
sustain a competitive edge, it is imperative for individuals and companies to
have a strategy. Strategy is key in business planning and entrepreneurial
Thus, to gauge global challenges and opportunities, understand about the social enterprise, develop an entrepreneurial mindset, to be creative and innovative, develop sustainable business practices, leverage change management and have a strategy to maintain competitive advantage, reading for a degree in Business Innovation and Entrepreneurship will enable students to hit the ground running.
J. (2018). 25 Years Ago I Coined the Phrase “Triple Bottom Line.” Here’s Why
It’s Time to Rethink It. Harvard Business Review, June 25, 2018
Schumpeter, J. 1942. Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. New York: Harper & Bros.
Most new students view their impending studies as a challenge,
feeling nervous and excited in equal parts. For students leaving home for the
first time or moving from the cocoon of sixth form and further education, the
prospect of independence beckons and can be either a boon or a burden.
Everybody worries about fitting in but for the mature
student, the thought that you might be a fair few years older than those fresh
out of school with, in some cases, little or no academic background, only adds
to the feelings of nervousness.
“I was nervous about being older and not fitting in and the hardest part was fitting the work around my family. “ Ella, 36
“I always thought students were there for a jolly – but it’s harder than it looks. At first I did struggle a bit with essays but my tutors explained it to me and after that the whole university experience became enjoyable – the learning, the lecturers, interacting with younger people.” Stephen, 66
“I wish I had been braver and done this sooner. The hardest part of the course was how much technology I had to get to grips with.” Kathy, 51
I attended Staffs Uni at the grand old age of 53 to study
Accounting & Finance. I had had a few false starts with Higher Education
earlier in my life when a young family, illness and money worries meant that it
was nigh on impossible to continue with my studies but at 53 I figured it was
now or never.
I chose a subject that I was interested in and with which
I had a fair bit of experience, however my ultimate goal was to be a teacher. I
opted for an accelerated degree programme as, like many mature students, taking
three or four years out of my working life wasn’t feasible.
I admit, in spite of having the motivation to come to university,
that on walking into a room full of young students on the first day, I did feel
intimidated and for the first few days, it was like being on a different
planet. However, the mature students naturally gravitated towards one another
recognising common ground in life experience and it soon became clear that it
was the perfect environment for us. Over the coming weeks and months, we
laughed and cried together and supported each other through studying, building
a bond of friendship which is still with us today.
I was one of the lucky ones in that I didn’t have children
living at home (in fact my youngest son was at university at the same time),
nor did I have to work full-time but the commitment of my peers who had young
families to look after, working and studying, I was blown away by their
dedication even when times got tough.
As the weeks moved on, in
spite of a 35-year age difference, it became obvious that I could learn as much
from the school-leavers as they could from me. Two particular students dragged
me kicking and screaming through the Economics module by helping me in their
spare time, and in return, I proofread their written assignments.
There are so many benefits to being a mature student. As one of our 2021 graduates, Anthony, explains
“I came to University completely lacking in confidence but over the months my confidence grew, not only because of the friendships made but also the excellent support from the University – from academic tutors to library staff to well-being counsellors. I couldn’t have asked for more. I will be returning to Staffs to study for a Masters in Sep, something I didn’t even dare dream of when I first started.”
Yes, university study is
hard and very challenging at times but the immense sense of pride when
graduation finally beckons, particularly if it hasn’t been plain sailing, is a
Graduates from my course have gone onto become teachers (higher education lecturers!!), accountants, business owners and more, so join us for an adventure of discovery – who knows where it might take you.
Our World is changing rapidly and becoming a global village. In this rapidly changing world, businesses have also evolved how they operate. The need for the employees who are ‘Jack of all trades’ has become a significant necessity for the businesses. Top management of businesses realises the importance of a dynamic workforce. The executives are aware that the rapidly changing business needs demand employees who can give them an edge due to their dynamic capabilities. In recent times this ‘Jack of all trades’ has been often regarded as an insult, but the full phrase is “a jack of all trades is a master of none, but oftentimes better than a master of one.” It was a compliment. This perceived Jack of all trades was in reality, William Shakespeare. The continuously challenging business world has now begun to realise this, and now looking for multi-skilled, multi-talented employees.
higher education sector has also realised that the conventional approach of
teaching and learning is becoming outdated. The students need to be trained and
equipped with a range of skills to be able to succeed in the fast-moving
challenging business environment.
The higher education sector should listen to the employers and tweak their way of teaching and learning. Staffordshire University has consulted a range of employers to understand the latest challenges and altered the teaching method and courses. The conventional approach to the delivery of full-time course of study comprising 15 weeks of student learning and assessment needs revision. The style of delivery needs to be updated in light of the employer demands. Staffordshire Business School has adopted the block teaching style to suit the dynamic business world. Block teaching is a style of teaching where lectures, seminars and learning are provided in intensive blocks. The university has adopted five-week blocks in which students will be studying one module with full concentration. This style of teaching offers deep-dive immersive learning. Block teaching focuses on individual skills and will develop your expertise as an independent learner and problem solver, preparing you for a fast-paced, focused career in finance and business.
Finance and accounting are no longer just about taxation and the management of financial capital. Finance and Business Enterprise will offer contemporary modules in the field of Accounting, Finance and Business enterprise. The course includes dynamic modules to understand the future of work, understanding the concept of Risk and Reward and the need to study the balance of power. The course also offers topics in sustainability accounting, corporate finance, audit and forensic accounting and financial narrative and reporting. Looking forward to solving yesterday’s problems. Fintech and digitisation module will analyse how Financial Technology (FinTech) is revolutionising finance. The module will gain an appreciation for the role of digitisation in business by exploring concepts such as automation, artificial intelligence and data mining and the challenges and opportunities these concepts present. The award provides a deeper understanding of the crucial role of finance in organisational decision making and the pursuit of competitive advantage. The students will graduate with an entrepreneurial mindset and the contemporary financial and accounting skills required to survive and thrive in uncertain business environments.
With this award, students may find themselves
pursuing a career as a Fintech Manager, Investment Analyst, Financial Manager, Finance
Engineer, Data Analyst, Sustainable Wealth Manager, Trust officer, Financial
Advisor, or Forensic Accountant.
Angela Lawrence, Chartered Marketer, Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Marketing and Associate Dean in Staffordshire Business School
I’ve always been a lover of clever marketing campaigns and frequently pondered on what makes a campaign so successful. Having identified some really smart campaigns over the years, I decided that four things matter and I developed my own model. There are already a couple of well-known marketing models with four-letter acronyms, to support marketing communications planning – Chris Fill’s DRIP model and Elmo Lewis’ classic, long-established AIDA model. I’d like to propose a third, MIMI. Here’s how it goes:
The first M stands for MEMORABLE. If you remember a marketing campaign then you probably talk to your friends and family about it. Word of mouth is like a bush fire – it spreads! Getting people to talk about your marketing campaign is a sure way to drive engagement and acquisition.
One of the most memorable campaigns of my lifetime was probably the 1971 Coca Cola advert which was absolute genius in its time and one of my first early memories of colour TV. “It’s the Real Thing”, the famous Coca Cola tagline will forever ring out to the tune of “I’d like to teach the world to sing” for me – most definitely memorable!
The I is for IMPACTFUL. If a campaign doesn’t make an impact, doesn’t drive a call to action, doesn’t change anything, then its probably a wasted investment. We invest in marketing campaigns because we want something to happen, whether that be purchase of a product or service, driving awareness or encouragement to sign up for further communications.
171 million banners with negative impact
5.5 million unique women
50% of the women who visited the Dove Ad Makeover site to create a message
The campaign extended beyond promoting a vision for beauty equality, by increasing sales of Dove from $2.5 to $4 billion in the campaigns’ first ten years. Dove soap bars became Unilever’s best-selling product company wide. That’s what I call impact!
The second M of my model stands for MEASUREABLE. Marketing costs money and every good finance officer will demand to know what the ROI will be before agreeing to your budget request. In todays world of digital marketing this is so much easier, with metrics such as Cost Per Click (CPC), Cost per Impression (CPI), Click Through Rate (CTR), conversion rate, number of visitors, post engagement, interactions, page views and many, many more. The hashtag has become a strong indicator of success – #MeToo, #BeKind, #LikeaGirl, #BlackLivesMatter and #NeverAgain resonate with me and illustrate the power of the online environment.
A truly measurable campaign that I think was just brilliant in its time was the EPICA award-winning Mini Getaway campaign in 2010. iPhones had only been around for 3 years, so a campaign developed around an app, to engage and encourage involvement was truly genius. I would hazard a guess that not many readers of this blog have ever seen this campaign, watch the video at the link above and I think you’ll agree that it’s Memorable, Impactful and Measurable without a doubt.
Finally, there is another I, this time for IDENTIFIABLE. It’s imperative that receivers of any campaign messaging need to be able to identify the product or brand. Some brands are identifiable purely by their colour – did you know that RAC orange is a unique colour? What colour are the McDonald arches? If I mention Cadburys, what colour would you associate with the brand?
Other brands are identifiable by a tune
containing the tag line or even the brand name – think of Go Compare and you
will no doubt sing it. The monotone, single note tune for We Buy Any Car still
ring in my head, and as I’ve already said, Coca Cola is the Real Thing in the
song from the 70’s ad. Other brands are identifiable by a character, such as
the Compare the Market meercats, the Michelin Man, the Jolly Green Giant
providing your sweetcorn, the Pillsbury Doughboy and my personal favourite,
Memorable, Impactful, Measurable and Identifiable – I challenge you to apply my MIMI model to your favourite marketing campaign. In fact, why not come and study a marketing qualification with us at Staffordshire Business School, to learn for yourself how to develop and deliver marketing campaigns that truly hit the mark.
Tonia Barrett, Lecturer, Staffordshire Business School
Most students decide to go to University as they want to learn, experience university life, meet friends, improve chances in their career, and gain more independence. Our Foundation Degree in Visitor Attraction and Resort Management (VARM) students achieve all of this and so much more. They leave with memorable and life changing experiences, broader knowledge, in depth understanding, increased determination, the skills to overcome challenges, an improved level of responsibility and time management skills. Are these skills you want to improve? Are you ready for a new challenge? Fancy meeting friends that that overtime become family? What we learn becomes part of who we are, check us out.
I have the great pleasure to be part of a growing programme full
of enthusiastic, energetic, innovative, creative, humorous, and imaginative learners.
This educational experience isn’t going to be easy, but after 2 years of
studying, and gaining employment at Alton Towers resort there will be no doubt
in your mind that it will all be worth it. Our VARM course looks for quality
over quantity, so you won’t be in a room with hundreds of other learners, just
liked minded people like you. We don’t strive for perfection at every entrance
gate, we train, teach, stretch, and individually challenge you to develop as
for us we are looking for progression not perfection in both your academic
studies and your employment experiences. While studying you will take part in debates,
discussions, individual and group assessments, you will design your own Visitor
Attraction business, you will investigate, read, research, and analyse current
practices. This course is a unique and bespoke opportunity for you to grow
personally and professional in a friendly orientated environment that is
supportive and inclusive to all learners. You will gain support from University
specialists from a wide field of organisational areas to include Tourism,
Events and Hospitality.
The VARM adventure includes 10-weeks paid placement in the UK’s leading theme park, Alton Towers Resort. The greatest showman once wrote ‘The noblest art is to make others happy’ (P. T. Barnum) and through your employment opportunities in the resort you will find yourself engrossed in delivering outstanding customer service, you will be able to build your communication skills, problem solving techniques, teambuilding as well as your own personnel management skills. While on your rollercoaster adventure, you will have the opportunity to gain access in student lead meetings with the Senior Leadership Team at the resort as well other unique opportunities. The exposure to these career driven individuals, not only helps with the writing of your assessments but also helps with your own career, motivation, networking, and drive to achieve your own dreams.
We are so much more than an educational establishment, we know through hard work, reflection, determination, motivation, and our support and guidance we can help turn your dreams into reality. As my favourite professor once said, ‘It’s not our abilities, but our choices that make us who we are.’ Dumbledore, Harry Potter. Throughout the success of VARM, it has been evidenced that the more you put in, the more you get out. Read the testimonials below from current and previous students, and then ‘make the right choice’.
Matt. Street Performer/Dungeon Attraction Manager. Graduated from VARM June 2021, moving into BA Business Management in September 2021. ‘Staffordshire University has given me the freedom to independently gain skills and understanding of the leisure industry, supported by teaching of theories and processes which can be applied throughout my job robes at Alton Towers Resort.’
Cameron. Animal Information Host at Shark Bait Reef by Sea Life. Graduated VARM June 2021, Business Top Up planned for September 2021.
‘Varm has been Fun, Friends and Fulfilment in myself. I’ve gained independence whilst being at Staffs both in my studies and work life. Grateful for all the opportunities and have really pushed and developed myself. A Clearer idea of where I want to work in the future thanks to the placements and working I’ve widened my network at Alton Towers.’
Nick. Guest Relations Manager. Distinction achieved in Fda Visitor Attraction & Resort Management, graduated June 2020. Currently studying Business management BA top-up. ‘VARM provides students with the chance to learn, gain experience and make unforgettable memories. Personally for me delivering a wealth of knowledge, after six enticing placements around the resort.’
Harry. Retail Team Leader. Level 4 VARM student, progressing to level 5 in September 2021. “Throughout my first year on the VARM course at Staffordshire University I have gained skills within a professional, safe, academic environment which I have been able to display through my work placements at Alton Towers Resort”
Ema Talam, Lecturer, Staffordshire Business School
Innovation is of great importance for economies, firms, but also us as individuals. In this blog, we are going to briefly discuss how innovation is impacting our everyday life.
Broadly speaking, innovation refers to new or
improved products, processes or methods. Innovative products and services have
greatly shaped our lives – the way we perform simplest of daily tasks, study, work
or spend our leisure time. Think about how many of your daily tasks would be
performed in the same way or differently a decade or a century ago. Would you
prepare your food, keep up with your friends and family, undertake your studies
or perform any part your job in the same way? It is likely that the answer to (at
least some of) these questions is no! The extent of the importance of various
innovative products and services (think about smartphones, computers, various
apps, etc.) has been, even more than ever, apparent during the pandemic.
Innovation – e.g. development of the vaccine and availability of different technologies – has affected significantly how we coped with the pandemic and our way out of the pandemic. Economists suggest that our ability to work from home has prevented more catastrophic consequences of the pandemic on the economy (Bloom, 2021). In my previous blog, I wrote about how the pandemic has affected firms and in particular, how it affected innovation undertaken by firms. To be able to survive, large number of firms relied on innovation. For example, firms decided to sell their products online as they were unable to sell their products in any other way, or to introduce completely new products. These innovations may even have prevented some firms from closing and employees were able to keep their jobs.
Why does it matter for us if the firms
operating around us are more or less innovative? Besides the obvious reason –
availability of certain and potentially superior products and services – the
research has shown that innovative firms pay higher wages to their employees (Bleaney
and Wakelin, 2002). Being employed in an innovative firm can benefit workers performing
jobs that require different ranges of skills. Using the data for the United
Kingdom for the period 2004-2016, Aghion et al. (2019) show that employees in
some of the low skilled occupations employed in innovative firms earn more
compared to their counterparts employed in firms that do not innovate.
Finally, does innovation have any impact on our quality of life or well-being? The answer seems to be yes! There are number of anecdotal evidences that might support this. Again, think about different technologies that we relied on during the pandemic. Additionally, the research has shown the existence of the link between innovation and our subjective well-being (Dolan and Metcalfe, 2012).
Steve Jobs once said that it is innovation that
distinguishes between leaders and followers and this applies to many areas of
life – not just business. Innovation is an ingredient without which the world
would not be able to thrive and as we have seen, innovation impacts all of us
and all spheres of life, including our well-being and quality of our lives.
As part of Staffordshire University’s Innovation Enterprise Zone webinar series, Professor Fang Zhao – Associate Dean Research and Enterprise and Julia Roberts, Entrepreneur in Residence of Staffordshire Business School presented a webinar titled ‘Digital Entrepreneurship in the wake of Covid-19’ on 5th May 2021. The presentation explored and discussed a range of opportunities of the digital transformation accelerated by Covid-19 for digital entrepreneurship from both research and practice perspectives. (https://www.staffs.ac.uk/events/2021/05/digital-entrepreneurship-in-the-wake-of-covid-19)
One of the initial objectives of the incoming Conservative government in 1979 was to reduce the size (cost) of the public sector through a major privatisation programme. This included British Telecom in 1984, British Gas in 1986, British Steel in 1988, Water in 1989, and Electricity in 1990 to 1991. However, reducing the size and cost of the public services presented a more difficult challenge. As well as contributing to social stability, public services that are free at the point of delivery are politically sensitive, due to their value and importance in the eyes of the British electorate. Disposing of a free public good through wholesale privatisation would evoke too much hostility, risking serious social and political consequences. Furthermore, unlike other tangible products, public services cannot be stored, making the prospect of disruption of services highly undesirable. Consequently, attention turned to neo-liberalism including the ‘marketisation’ of the public services, as a way of reducing their cost and drain on the UK economy.
The above is an abridged excerpt from my PhD, completed in 2008. I revisited it recently during my personal reflections after a year of social restrictions and unprecedented government intervention to shore up businesses and peoples’ working lives. At the time I wrote my thesis I harboured that familiar feeling of unease that something was lurking in our future. Something that would force a re-think of these ideas and about how we should work and live particularly with regards to climate change and our provisions for managing future health crises.
The debates relating to the value of public services-vs-being a drain on the economy, particularly with regard to health has been thrust back into the spotlight in a way that was, actually, not hard to imagine and was in fact predicted (but not really acted on). Sure, there was always the possibility of a pandemic, after all they have happened before and during a time when the NHS didn’t even exist. However, the 21st century, characterised by a complex technological and geographical inter-connectedness has intensified the pursuit of economic wealth accompanied by the sheer speed of capital, people (and viruses) moving around the globe. The pursuit of wealth and its continuing concentration into fewer, ever more powerful hands, was already argued to be a glaring betrayal of the needs of humanity – ‘Profit over People’ to quote the title of a publication by Noam Chomsky.
In the UK, the media, public service employees and their unions have highlighted the lack of investment (often disputed by government ministers) in the NHS – OK, whatever. However, neither austerity nor any supposed investment prepared us for COVID. Like many people, I am now reflecting on certain questions. Will the investment in scientific endeavour as a way of improving human health, equality and the planet increasingly morph into meaningful international cooperation on a grand scale? Are governments going to press on with neo-liberal, free-market policies and consumerism despite their inability to build a prosperous and fair global society for most people? Or, will we see a return to the Big State long-term and if so, what other problems would that create and for who?
Alternatively, are we heading towards a ‘Great Reset’ of capitalism (circa 2030) where, apparently, ‘you will own nothing and you will be happy’, because you will rent everything from those who do? Note that the wealthy and powerful proposing this ‘alternative’ at the World Economic Forum did not say ‘we will have nothing, and we will be happy’. Such a ‘Great Reset’ could further increase dependency on fewer but bigger and more powerful players providing our commodities – is this a solution, or a magnification of the existing problem?
Anyway, our current political spectrum is unlikely to produce the necessary vision for business, health or the environment particularly while those with vested interests in the status quo keep calling the shots. If the combined crises of a pandemic and global warming are not enough for us all to really ‘wake up’ and work collaboratively towards a new vision, nothing ever will be (apart from maybe an alien invasion or a very large meteorite!).
This blog considers the political potential for the UK to rejoin the EU in, say, the next ten to 15 years.
Before the 2016 Referendum, Leavers displayed
most of the passion. Remainers tended to be lukewarm in their support for the
EU. Yet, after the Referendum, there was an upsurge in commitment to “Europe” –
displayed in hundreds of thousands marching and six million people signing a
petition to cancel Brexit – with a consistent minority wanting to commit to
rejoining. If remainers display the kind of commitment displayed by UKIP, so
the argument goes, then over time the ground might be prepared for a similarly
Whether this perspective can gain traction
depends on both (i) long-run demographic and cultural changes in the UK and
(ii) economic developments in the UK but also in the EU. Rob Ford and Maria
Sobolewska (https://ukandeu.ac.uk/demographic-change-public-opinion-and-brexit/) demonstrate that generational change and the
increasing share in the UK population of graduates are steadily increasing the
relative political weight of the more Europhile social groups.
Against the background of long-run demographic
and cultural trends, the point of this article is to argue that economic
developments in both the UK and the EU will also be a major influence on the
politics of rejoining. My argument can be reduced to a 2´2 matrix highlighting four potential outcomes.
performance in both the UK and the EU continues to be “bad”. By bad, I mean average
annual economic growth at around one per cent (so that a doubling of average
living standards takes about 70 years). This is almost too slow to notice and
too little to satisfy competing demands.
performance in both the UK and the EU proves to be “good”, which means average
annual economic growth at around 2.5 per cent (so that a doubling of average
living standards takes less than 30 years). This should be sufficient to
address competing claims on national income (e.g. for both reducing regional inequalities
and investing in green technologies).
performance in the UK is “good” but in the EU “bad”.
performance in the UK is “bad” but in the EU “good”.
In each of the four cells, I add the implications for a successful campaign to create momentum to rejoin the EU.
Post-Brexit economic outcomes (Bad or Good) and prospects for a movement to rejoin (cell contents)
Next, I explain (i) the economic reasoning that
makes each set of outcomes plausible together with (ii) the reasoning behind
each set of implications.
1) EU “bad” + UK “bad”.
Productivity growth (as measured by, say, the value of output per worker per year) has been very low in all the developed countries since the Global Financial Crisis. If this “secular stagnation” continues, then the economic outlook for the EU and UK alike is “bad”. The UK has probably made a bad situation somewhat worse by weakening trade integration with the EU, which will reduce incentives for the most innovative and productive firms to invest, produce and employ in the UK.
For its part, the EU seems unable to resolve the
macroeconomic imbalances and consequent growth constraints imposed by the
single currency. For different countries to share a single currency, their
economies need to be much more deeply integrated than is the current position
in the Eurozone. For example, if some countries are experiencing trade deficits
and recession (e.g. Italy) while others are in surplus and growing (e.g. Germany)
then to compensate for the absence of independent monetary policy (which would
enable Italy to reduce interest rates and depreciate its currency) there needs
to be offsetting fiscal transfers (enabling Italy to contribute less tax
outflow and/or receive revenue inflows). However, fiscal transfers on a
significant scale require a federal state with a very large budget. This is why
the UK and USA are successful monetary unions (in both cases, around 40 per
cent of GDP passes through the hands of central government). In contrast, the
EU is not (the EU budget accounts for around only one per cent of EU GDP,
although this is set to double in the next seven-year fiscal period as a result
of the Next Generation EU Fund).
In the medium to long term,
EU members (or, strictly speaking, the Eurozone countries) will either move
towards greater integration or accept a continued brake on growth together with
divergence in the economic performance of member states. In this situation, the
EU will have little to gain from the renewed membership of a country likely to
resist deeper integration. At the same time, lacklustre EU performance will be
a strong disincentive to the UK to rejoin.
2) EU “good” + UK “good”.
Technological progress resulting in new fields of productive investment, high-wage employment and growth could provide a favourable context for pursuing different national growth models. In theUK it is possible that Brexit will administer a shock enabling useful reforms – e.g. under the banner of the now fashionable “industrial policy” – that will enable productivity growth to recover along with wages and output. For its part, theEU might achieve greater political integration and, on this platform, underpin the single currency with a transfer union, thereby enabling macroeconomic imbalances to be resolved and better advantage to be taken of the single currency for trade and investment. In this scenario, political pressure for the UK to rejoin is likely to be muted within the UK and to find little support from within the EU.
3) EU “good” + UK “bad”.
In this scenario, the EU establishes the political prerequisites for a single currency and sustained growth, while the UK experiences the downside of Brexit with few offsetting benefits. Faced with a thriving EU and the steady drip-drip effect of bad news about the UK economy, the apologists for Brexit may find their excuses wearing thin. The appeal of “sovereignty” may fade in the face of lack of tangible outcomes and with the passing of the generation for whom the idea of sovereignty signifies much of importance. Conversely, an increasing number of younger voters may be attracted by the relative success of the EU.
4) EU “bad” + UK “good”.
In the event of continued political and consequent economic failure in the EU combined with a successful model in the UK, re-joining a failed EU is likely to have little attraction outside the ranks of the ideologically committed.
From these four scenarios, only the third – EU
“good” + UK “bad” – reinforces favourable long-run demographic and cultural
trends with an economic environment in which a “rejoin” movement might gain
traction. So how
likely is this scenario? To answer this question, we calculate a probability
for each cell in the matrix. This involves making some big assumptions;
however, these can be adjusted for different judgements and thus different
My assumptions are as follows.
For the EU, “Bad” and “Good” economic outcomes
are equally likely (remember, the Eurozone did survive the last outbreak of the
euro crisis and the will among member states to make the EU work is greater
than typically recognised in the UK). So, we assume that both outcomes have a
probability of 0.5.
For the UK, let’s say that the “Bad” and “Good”
economic outcomes are also equally likely, each with a probability of 0.5.
These are my preferred assumptions, because –
in my view – long-run forecasts about the relative performance of economies do not
permit any greater precision. However, many will disagree. On the one hand, Europhiles might prefer the following
indicative scenarios and corresponding probabilities: Britain is most likely doomed
to decline outside of the EU (80% chance of a “bad” outcome for the UK); and the
EU will be economically successful as it progresses towards an “ever expanding
union of the European peoples” (80% chance of a “good” outcome for the EU). On
the other, Eurosceptics might reverse
these probabilities: seeing great opportunities for a Britain freed from the
deadweight of inflexible regulations and an EU endlessly preoccupied by
attempts to reconcile the contradictions of a doomed single currency. Allowing
for caricature, such views are common among the hard cores of the respective
According to my 50-50 assumption, each of the four outcomes depicted in the matrix have a probability of 0.25 (0.5´0.5=0.25, i.e. a one-in-four chance). If you are not a gambler, then odds of three to one against a favourable economic environment for rejoining – i.e. EU “good” + UK “bad” – might be discouraging. Yet, for revolutionaries, these are rather good odds.
The “hard core” in both camps will take comfort
from different assumptions: on the
indicative 80-20 assumptions,
Europhiles will see overwhelmingly favourable economic terrain for re-joining
(an 80% chance of a “good” EU outcome and an 80% chance of a “bad” UK outcome jointly
suggest a 80% ´ 80% = 64% probability of Outcome 3, favourable
to re-joining, while
Eurosceptics will see a 20% chance of EU “good” and a 20% chance of UK “bad”
outcomes, hence 20% ´ 20% = 4% probability of Outcome 3, so
virtually no chance of a future case for re-joining on economic grounds.
Europhile assumptions suggest an increasingly supportive
economic context for rejoining, and even for European federalism, should Britain
prove unable to turn its new found sovereignty into economic advantage. Yet the
EU’s trajectory towards, and economic need for, a deepened “union of the
European peoples” currently has little support in the UK, even among remainers
(Rob Ford and Maria Sobolewska note that “60% of Remain voters in the 2016
British Social Attitudes survey also wanted to see the EU’s powers reduced”). Consequently,
even in a political environment in which demography, cultural change and
economic developments create opportunity for undoing the UK’s current “hard
Brexit”, political agency will be decisive. If a “rejoin” movement succeeds in
winning hearts and minds, thereby moving European Federalism into the political
mainstream, then a majority may be created for the UK to rejoin a future, more
deeply integrated EU. Conversely, if the argument is conducted on the basis of
an instrumental balancing of costs and benefits, then the outcome may well be
prolonged renegotiation leading to closer cooperation – heading towards a
“Norway” type of relationship – rather than to renewed membership.
 Each outcome has a probability of 0.25 (i.e. a one-in-four chance). Three outcomes (cells) thus have a joint probability of 0.75. One cell (say, Number 3) has a probability of 0.25. Hence, the odds of any single outcome are 3 to 1 against.